Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.