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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.